And we got Oscar Picks. I was going to do something different with the picks this year, something fabulous, but I'm not feeling very fabulous these days. Anyways, we'll be back a little later with friday's lunch/interview debacle.

Well it's Oscar time again and America can't be more grateful. With the Democratic nomination almost sewn up and the Superbowl over, what other topic do we have left for people to over-analyze, debate, and give wildly unbelievable predictions that they really have no clue about? What else are we gonna discuss, praytell? Why we just invaded a country claiming WMD's only to have to say "oops, sorry, guess they're not here?" I think not. So going with that theme, here's a look at the 2004 Oscar Awards.

First, I should preface this by saying I'm a little biased towards "Return of the King." I don't just think the movie should win every award it's nominated for, but it should have been nominated in every category and win those too. And yes, that means things like "Best Foreign Documentary." We're talking about a movie that has a battle scene involving four-tusked oiliphants, flying dragon-like beasts, guys on horses, catapults, and one kick-ass fire breathing battering ram. Does "Mystic River" have any of that? No. I think not. Seriously, while "Return of the King" may not be "a serious" movie or a "dramatic" movie or an "artistic" movie, it's a great movie movie. In fact, it's more like that. The movie just flat out kicks ass. And for kicking so much ass for so long (if you include all ten hours of the entire trilogy) this movie deserves as much golden statuettes as the Academy has on hand.

But as much money as the three films have made, as great reviews as it got, a lot of people are pooh-poohing it, saying it won't win and doesn't deserve too. But why? When it comes down to it, the entire reason why people are pooh-poohing it can be summed up in one word- Hobbits.

Yes, there are people out there who think the movie shouldn't win because it's about four-foot halflings with giant furry feet. And all I can say to that is whatever. Let me ask you this- would Ingrid Bergman's "Persona" be any less sweet if it starred Hobbits instead of Liv Ullman?

Anyways,

Best Picture-
Return of the King
Seabiscuit
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the River
Mystic River
Lost In Translation

Still need convincing? We can go several ways here. The Academy loves epics and "Return of the King" is about as epic as epic gets. And there's nobody who could tell me that "Braveheart" and "Gladiator" weren't as good as "Return of the King." If people still think that it's different with "ROTK" I wonder, would you say something different if, say, the Orcs were Romans instead and Hobbits merely the Visigoths or Celts? Or what if the Orcs were some English king and Gandalf was merely some guy with a bad scottish accent and a kilt?

Or we could go the Serious Movie route. "Return of the King" features people crying, deaths, addiction, and a clash between good and evil (not to mention giant Eagles that swoop down to rescue hobbits stranded in the middle of a river bed). How many of the other movies include all of that?

Or we could go this way, by looking at the other movies. "Seabiscuit" was an inspiring tale about redemption, healing, and the magic of betting. You know how I know that? Because they told you that every five minutes of the movie. I might have actually liked the movie more if they didn't have voice-overs constantly telling you how incredible the horse was, how the nation wouldn't have survived the Depression without the horse, or how all the three main characters found each other. As for "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World," I'm still wondering why people think it's a good movie. The movie critic for Time Magazine even picked "ROTK" to win, but said "M&C" should win because "ROTK" had a few moments that dragged. If that's a problem with "ROTK," then why isn't it a problem with the entire middle portion of "M&C?" Remember folks, just because something is boring yet tasteful still doesn't mean it's not boring. "Mystic River," on the other hand, is a serious, serious, movie with lots of acting and crying and death and all that fun stuff yet has enough chops to it not to be overdone, but while I thought it was a good movie, I didn't think it was great. As for "Lost in Translation," I didn't just love "Lost in Translation," I lurved it. I adored it. I wanted to take it out for a nice romantic dinner and bring it over to meet the parents. But it's just not "Best Picture"-y.

Finally, I ask you this question- what movie will people remember in five years? In ten? In thirty? People are gonna be watching DVD's or whatever the hell kind of gizmo we have of all the "Lord of the Rings" movies when George Bush builds us that Moon colony he's been talking about. Can you really seriously say that about "Master and Commander?"

Will Win: Return of the King
Should Win: Return of the King (if not, Academy Members should be forced to watch an Adam Sandler marathon as punishment).

Best Director-
Peter Jackson- "Return of the King"
Sofia Coppola- "Lost in Translation"
Clint Eastwood- "Mystic River"
Fernando Meirelles- "City of God"
Peter Weir- "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World"

Do I even have to say it?

The Acting Awards:

In baseball and even football, there are people know who are able to crunch numbers and use them to back up whatever type of prediction they want to make. Things like "teams that run bases only on Tuesday have a .752 chance of winning that game if it's started by a left-hander over 6' 2"" So, using that idea, I'm going to try and predict the Acting Awards mathematically. Points will be awarded for these things:

1)The actor cries a lot (the more the better. If somebody just cries once, it's not worth the same as someone who spends the whole movie crying or has a big emotional scene where they do lots of crying and screaming).
2)There's some sort of death involved in the movie (bonus points if they play the one who dies)
3)The actor has to do something to make themselves ugly (this is always seen as a "courageous" choice).
4)Actor either has disease or is mentally handicapped. Also applicable if they are "haunted" by something in their past. (bonus points for some combination of the three).
5)They're in a period piece
6)They speak in an accent, whether it be foreign or some sort of speech impediment (bonus points, for instance, if it's a movie about a stutterer with cancer)
7)They're names are Nicole Kidman, Renee Zellwigger, Jack Nicholson, or Tom Hanks (also is true of oldish English actors who've been knighted by the Queen- see Dame Judy Dench or Sir Ben Kingsley. If Judy Dench were in a Rob Schneider movie, she'd get nominated).

Let's see how this goes

Best Supporting Actress

Shohreh Aghdashloo - "House of Sand and Fog"
Patricia Clarkson - "Pieces of April"
Marcia Gay Harden - "Mystic River"
Holly Hunter - "Thirteen"
Renée Zellweger - "Cold Mountain"

Kind of at a loss here since I haven't seen any of these movies, but I think Renee has it because (from what I hear) she's in a period piece, lost her husband in the war, tries to look like some poor country bumpkin, speaks like Grandma Clampett and is named Renee Zellwiger. Considering it's a big Miramax period piece, I'm guessing she's coming with the waterworks at some point in the movie. That's a big six out of seven points. The others? Well, who cares about this award, so we'll move on.

Should Win: Holly Hunter (what the hell, I always liked her)
Will Win: Renee Zellwiger

Best Supporting Actor

Alec Baldwin - "The Cooler"
Benicio Del Toro - "21 Grams"
Djimon Hounsou - "In America"
Tim Robbins - "Mystic River"
Ken Watanabe - "The Last Samurai"

Side note before we go to the toteboard, where's Sean Astin? He cries. He gained thirty pounds for the movie AND he had to wear those fake Hobbit feet the whole movie. And it's kind of a period piece in that they all wear goofy outfits and wear goofy wigs. Why wasn't he nominated? Just because he played a hobbit?

Actually, what was the best "supporting" character in any movie this year? Same with the past two years- Gollum. I don't know if Andy Serkis (the actor who "played" Gollum) technically acted, but that was one of the best performances I've seen. And, if you go by the scoring system, he's got Five out of Seven (Gollum dies, he's addicted to the ring, it's a period piece, he talks funny, and you can't say Serkis doesn't allow himself to be made ugly). Plus, I saw how they filmed his scenes and the poor guy had to do everything in that blue suit they use for CGI effects, including in scenes where he had to dive in super-cold water. Let's see DeNiro do that.

Okay, now that I've gotten my rant on, onto the winner. I heard "In America" was really good, but didn't see it so can't say anything about his performance. I don't get what was so good about Ken Watanbe's performance because all he did was act all zen-like (he does, however die and it is a period piece). That leaves Robbins, Baldwin, and Del Toro.

Alec Baldwin's career is a funny thing. Everyone knows he's a brilliant actor (see "Glengary Glen Ross"), a great talkshow guest, and always brings his A game to Saturday Night Live (I've always had a fondness for Baldwin because of a Bono impression he gave in the early 90's). Except for Bill O'Reilly and Kim Basinger, everyone likes him, yet he's always in crappy movies. Why he's not a bigger actor is beyond me. Same with Robbins whose very good in all of his movies (he was Nuke LaLoosh in "Bull Durham" fer crissakes) and is with the one of the coolest woman on the face of the planet, Susan Sarandon. I think Robbins gets shortchanged a bit because he's a bit goofy looking and doesn't hide his political beliefs. As for Del Toro, the chicks dig him. As far as I know, nobody dies in "The Cooler" and it's not a period piece, so there goes Baldwin. "21 Grams" has a lot of crying and has a lot of death and drug stuff in there (that's 3 out of 7) but he won a couple of years ago, so he won't here (it's a corollary). We'll give it to Robbins even though I'm the only one who thought he was better than Sean Penn and everyone thinks Sean Penn was better than him.

Should Win- Tim Robbins (did I mention he was Nuke LaLoosh?)
Will Win- Tim Robbins

Another side note- The three writers of "Return of the King" were nominated for "Best Adapted Screenplay" but my guess is that there's no chance in hell they'll win. Mainly because there's no way in hell they'll get any credit for adapting a book mainly read by pimply faced Dungeons & Dragons geeks. It'll probably go to whoever wrote "Mystic River" because "Mystic River" isn't read by people who name their bong after characters in the movie. But it should win and it should be an easy choice. "The Lord of the Rings" just might be the most beloved, most read, most fanatically followed since the Bible. In other words, there's a whole hell of a lot of people who know those books inside and out. My dad, for instance, has it as his tradition that he'll read them every seven years. Talk about pressure. I mean, considering how many people have read the books, loved the books, and know the books inside and out, Jackson et al managed to film the movies and not piss any of them off. Can whoever wrote "Seabiscuit" or "Mystic River" claim that?


Best Actress-
Keisha Castle-Hughes - "Whale Rider"
Diane Keaton - "Something's Gotta Give"
Samantha Morton - "In America"
Charlize Theron - "Monster"
Naomi Watts - "21 Grams"

Hmmm. It's sounding like a battle between Charlize Theron (she's pretty AND she can act!) versus Ms. Annie Hall herself, Diane Keaton (she's over 60 AND plays a romantic lead!). Nobody seems to be talking about Samantha Morton and Keisha Castle-Hughes should just happy to be there and could she please fill out her "Where Are They Now?" application form so we can know where she'll be in twenty years. As for Naomi Watts, aka my future wife, it's not her year but as she's slowly moving into the Nicole Kidman/Renee Zellwigger category in which she'll soon be nominated for everything even she appears in, even f it's a cameo in the next "Scary Movie" sequel. So, it's no biggy if she doesn't win this year.

I'm going with Charlize because she's off the charts point-system wise. She dies, she makes herself ugly, she has an accent, and she cries. Plus, she gets extra bonus points for playing a lesbian, getting raped, and killing other people. Hope you enjoy your moment of fame, Charlize, and hope you enjoy competing with Hillary Swank for all those future HBO movies you'll be doomed to competing for. Unless, of course, you go the Halle Berry route and just flash your breasts everywhere for money.

Should Win- Scarlett Johannsen "Lost in Translation" (I know she wasn't nominated, but she rocked in it and if there's a guy who didn't see the movie and didn't want to instantly hop on a plane to Tokyo and cruise hotel bars looking for her, I don't know them).
Will Win- Charlize Theron


Actor in a Leading Role-
Johnny Depp - "Pirates of the Carribean"
Ben Kingsley - "House of Sand and Fog"
Jude Law - "Cold Mountain"
Bill Murray - "Lost in Translation"
Sean Penn - "Mystic River"

This one's a toughy. Kingsley's entering Dame Judy Dench category whereas if he gets nominated for everything just because. Then there's Jude Law whose nothing but a pretty-boy Brit and whose movie I didn't see. Neither of them have a chance. Instead, it'll be between Murray, Depp, and Penn and this is where it gets interesting, mainly because they're all good guys and everybody loves them. Strangely, they're also well known Hollywood cranks who don't do press, don't live in Hollywood, and don't do big dumb-action flicks. Any three of them could win and it'll be okay by most everyone (except for the cranks on Fox News who'll go into hyper-ventiliation mode if Penn wins).

"Pirates of the Carribean" would have flat-out sucked if it wasn't for Depp. Depp's performance was so good it carried the movie and turned it into the frolicy free-for-all that it was. If you think about it, he also scores high on the list as he makes himself look ugly, speaks in an accent, and it's a period piece. Unfortunately, he's cursed in the fact it's a comic performance. Then again, so is Murray for "Lost in Translation" but my feeling is that there are a lot of people rooting for him. How could you not? Just the thought of someone who started his career giving Noogies to Gilda Radner on the old "Saturday Night Live" makes you want to root for him. But, as befitting the movie, he doesn't score high on the scoring system. Stupid Sofia Coppola made a movie in which nobody cries, breaks down, dies, or makes themselves look ugly. Instead you get a brilliant performance that's equally as sad as it is funny.

So we're going with Penn who everyone says is phenomenal, although I thought he was a little too showy, like he was trying to do a Robert deNiro impression. Amazingly, the guy has been nominated several times before yet never won so he's got the "let's give him a lifetime achievement type award," especially as he was jobbed for the role he should have won for- Jeff Spicoli.

Should Win- Bill Murray and that's the fact, Jack.
Will Win- Sean Penn

MUSIC (SONG)
" Into the West from The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - Fran Walsh Howard Shore and Annie Lennox
"A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow from A Mighty Wind - Michael McKean and Annette O’Toole
"Scarlet Tide" from Cold Mountain - T Bone Burnett and Elvis Costello
The Triplets of Belleville from The Triplets of Belleville Benoit Charest and Sylvain Chomet
"You Will Be My Ain True Love" from Cold Mountain - Sting.


This is always the dumbest category. Anyone remember any of these songs? Boy that song from "The Triplets of Belleville" really made it big on the pop charts didn't it? Boy, that Sting sure knows his music of the Civil War era, doesn't he? And finally, I ask you this, what song was there from "Return of the King?" Was it the song Pippin sang while Denethor sent Farimir on his suicide mission or was it the song that was playing in the background as everyone was filing out of the theaters as fast as possible so they could finally take a leak? Can't we kill this nomination, please?

Should Win- "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" (trust me, it's hilarious)
Will Win- Eh, who cares.